Liam Brennan

MACRO & TRADFI·JUN 23

Japan’s carry-trade unwind is not done. The yen tells you when.

USDJPY at 157.20 is 4 yen from the MOF's implicit intervention threshold. With Ueda's BoJ signalling October hike, the carry-trade unwind that…

MACRO & TRADFI·JUN 23

BlackRock’s tokenised T-bill product crossed $1.4bn. The fixed-income desk noticed.

BUIDL crossed $1.4bn in AUM Tuesday, growing $312m in May alone. The underlying is plain-vanilla short T-bills, but the wrapper is the…

MACRO & TRADFI·JUN 23

The ECB Hiked 25bp in June, Not Cut. Now the July Meeting Is the Tell.

Lagarde, Lane, and Stournaras lean dovish on a July cut; Schnabel, Holzmann, and Nagel hold the hawkish line. The June staff projections…

BITCOIN & LAYER-1S·JUN 23

The next BTC halving is still over a year out. The miner stress test starts now.

312 days to the 5th BTC halving. Subsidy drops 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC at block 1,050,000. CleanSpark, Riot, and Marathon will all…

MARKETS·JUN 23

The dollar curve compressed 12bp in May 2026 — here’s why the bid was on duration

The 2s10s flattened 12bp on Tuesday's $42bn 7-year auction, with the long end leading. Term premium is back negative for the first…

MARKETS·JUN 23

Funding rates flip positive across majors — but the gamma still cuts both ways

BTC perpetual funding flipped positive on Binance, OKX, and Bybit for the first time in 23 days, but dealer gamma above $100k…

MARKETS·JUN 23

BTC holds near $64K as US spot ETFs snap 10-day, $2.7bn outflow streak

BTC closed Tuesday at $101,840 after $487m of net spot-ETF inflows, the eighth consecutive net-positive session led by IBIT and FBTC. The…